WTXS21 PGTW 180300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94S) CANCELLATION//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/170251ZNOV2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 170300). THE AREA OF 
CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.6S 102.2E IS NOW 
LOCATED NEAR 10.8S 105.3E, APPROXIMATELY 32 NM SOUTHWEST OF CHRISTMAS 
ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) IMAGERY AND MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICT A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
(LLC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLC. 94S HAS 
MISSED ITS CHANCE TO DEVELOP AND IS NOW STUCK BENEATH PERSISTENT, HIGH 
(30-40 KNOTS) NORTHEASTERLY VWS. 94S STILL HAS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES 
OF 27C AND STRONG 850MB VORTICITY SIGNATURES IN ITS FAVOR BUT THAT MAY 
NOT BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THE 
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TRACKING EAST SOUTHEAST OF JAVA WHERE IT WILL REMAIN 
QUASI-STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS 
DOWNGRADED TO LOW.//
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