ABIO10 PGTW 171800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/171800Z-
181800ZNOV2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/170251ZNOV2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
5.3S 99.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.6S 102.2E, APPROXIMATELY 214 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE 
IMAGERY COMBINED WITH A 162219Z SSMIS 91GHZ PASS DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING 
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION SLIGHTLY DISPLACED TO 
THE SOUTH AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE LLC. 94S HAS ITS BACK AGAINST THE 
WALL WITH THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENT NOT BEING IN ITS FAVOR WITH HIGH 30-
40KT VWS. LUCKILY ITS CURRENT TRAJECTORY HAS IT ON THE UP AND UP WITH 
MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS SOUTH OF JAVA WITH 10-15KT VWS THAT HAS BEEN 
STEADILY DECREASING, FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW, INCREASES IN THE 850MB 
VORTICITY SIGNATURES, AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY AT 27-
28C. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT 94S WILL CONTINUE ON A SOUTHEASTWARD 
TRACK INTO AN AREA MORE FAVORABLE THAN IT CURRENTLY IS IN OVER THE NEXT 
6-12 HOURS AND ALLOW FOR ITS WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY OF DEVELOPMENT TO OPEN 
UP SLIGHTLY MORE OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOW A 
STEADY RISE IN 94S GETTING TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS THEN TAPERING OFF OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 22 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 170300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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