WTXS21 PGTW 170300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94S) REISSUED// REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/160251ZNOV2022// AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 115 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 5.3S 99.7E TO 8.7S 103.2E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 22 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 111700Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 9.6S 102.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 16 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.3S 99.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.6S 102.2E, APPROXIMATELY 214 NM WEST- NORTHWEST OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY COMBINED WITH A 162219Z SSMIS 91GHZ PASS DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION SLIGHTLY DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE LLC. 94S HAS ITS BACK AGAINST THE WALL WITH THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENT NOT BEING IN ITS FAVOR WITH HIGH 30- 40KT VWS. LUCKILY ITS CURRENT TRAJECTORY HAS IT ON THE UP AND UP WITH MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS SOUTH OF JAVA WITH 10-15KT VWS THAT HAS BEEN STEADILY DECREASING, FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW, INCREASES IN THE 850MB VORTICITY SIGNATURES, AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY AT 27- 28C. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT 94S WILL CONTINUE ON A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK INTO AN AREA MORE FAVORABLE THAN IT CURRENTLY IS IN OVER THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS AND ALLOW FOR ITS WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY OF DEVELOPMENT TO OPEN UP SLIGHTLY MORE OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOW A STEADY RISE IN 94S GETTING TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN TAPERING OFF OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 22 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 160300). 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 180300Z.// NNNN