WTXS21 PGTW 160300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
115 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 5.3S 99.7E TO 8.7S 103.2E WITHIN THE 
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED 
TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 160000Z INDICATES THAT A 
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 5.3S 99.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
5.4S 99.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.3S 99.8E, APPROXIMATELY 470 NM NORTHWEST 
OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 
152231Z SSMIS 91GHZ PASS ILLUSTRATES A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 151512Z 
ASCAT-C SCATTEROMETRY IMAGE SHOWS A DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 15-25 KT 
WIND BARBS DISPLACED TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
REVEALS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY WARM 
(28-29C) SST, STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND LOW-MODERATE (15-20KT) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). MULTIPLE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL 
AGREEMENT THAT 94S WILL STEADILY DEVELOP AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD OVER 
THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 
TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
170300Z.//
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