ABIO10 PGTW 151800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/151800Z-
161800ZNOV2022//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
6.4S 96.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.4S 99.5E, APPROXIMATELY 476 NM NORTHWEST 
OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 
151146Z SSMIS 91GHZ PASS DEPICT IMPROVED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES AND 
FORMATIVE BANDING FEATURES FULLY OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER (LLCC). A 151512Z ASCAT-C SCATTEROMETRY IMAGE SHOWS A DEFINED 
CIRCULATION OF 5-10 KTS WITH A FIELD OF 15-20 KT WIND BARBS DISPLACED TO 
THE NORTH OF THE LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINALLY 
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY WARM (28-29C) SST, 
MODERATE UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND LOW-MODERATE (15-20KT) VWS. GLOBAL 
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT OF SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK TOWARDS AUSTRALIA 
WITH SLOW DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 
20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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