ABPW10 PGTW 120600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/120600Z-130600ZNOV2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/120121ZNOV2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
20.4N 167.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 165.8E, APPROXIMATELY 86 NM 
NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) 
DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED, GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER (LLCC) WITH WIDESPREAD FAIRLY DISORGANIZED CONVECTION SHEARED OFF 
TO THE EAST OF THE LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS MARGINALLY 
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR INTENSIFICATION WITH WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES, WEAK (5-10KTS) VWS, AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. GLOBAL 
MODELS SUGGEST THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK WESTWARD AND DO A SHARP RECURVE TO 
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH THE PASSING OF A TRANSIENT RIDGE AND START THE 
TRANSITIONS TO A SUBTROPICAL AND THEN EXTRATROPICAL LOW OVER THE NEXT 
SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 120130) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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