WTXS21 PGTW 030600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.3S 94.9E TO 11.1S 91.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 27 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 030000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 8.5S 94.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUS LOCATED NEAR 
5.4S 94.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.5S 94.8E, APPROXIMATELY 252 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS, AUSTRALIA. NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS, 
AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY 
OBSCURED LOW LEVER CIRCULATION WITH DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE 
CENTER.  A 030325Z ASCAT METOP-C IMAGE DEPICTS A SWATH OF 27-32 KNOTS ON 
THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29C), 
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-25 KNOTS), AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW 
ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 93S WILL HAVE A SHORT 
72 HOUR WINDOW TO DEVELOP, GRADUALLY DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT 12-24 
HOURS, TRACKING SOUTHWEST THEN WESTWARD.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
040600Z.
//
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