ABIO10 PGTW 030230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/030230Z-031800ZNOV2022//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
5.4S 94.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.5S 94.8E, APPROXIMATELY 252 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MSI AND A 022125Z SSMIS 
91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH FLARING 
CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE ENVIRONMENT IS 
NOT TOO SHABBY FOR 93S TO DEVELOP WITH FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW-
MODERATE (15-20KT) VWS, AND WARM (27-28C) SST. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN 
AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 
24-48 HOURS. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS MORE MIXED, WITH THE MAJORITY OF 
GUIDANCE INCLUDING GFS, BEING UNEXCITED ABOUT THE SYSTEM AND SHOWING 
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DEVELOPMENT. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND SHOWS A 
BRIEF WINDOW OF INTENSIFICATION WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS, REACHING 
MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH BEFORE RAPIDLY WEAKENING. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO MEDIUM//
NNNN