ABIO10 PGTW 021800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
021800Z-031800ZNOV2022//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
5.4S 94.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.7S 95.0E, APPROXIMATELY 351 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE (EIR) 
IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD DISORGANIZED CIRCULATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION 
PRIMARILY ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE. A 021529Z ASCAT-B PARTIAL PASS SHOWED A 
WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH A CENTRAL CORE OF 
25-30 KNOT WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTER POSITION, WITH A MUCH BETTER 
STRUCTURE THAN THE EIR WOULD SUGGEST. OVERALL, THE ENVIRONMENT IN NOT TOO 
SHABBY FOR 93S TO DEVELOP WITH FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15KT) VWS 
THAT HAS BEEN ON A STEADY DECLINE, AND WARM (28-29C) SST. GLOBAL MODELS 
ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93S WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD BEFORE LOOPING BACK ON ITSELF AND SLOWLY BUT STEADILY 
INTENSIFYING TO A LOW END TS STRENGTH CYCLONE BEYOND TAU 72. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 22 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS 
LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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