WTPN21 PGTW 292300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.0N 139.4E TO 8.0N 132.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 292300Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.0N 138.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUS LOCATED NEAR 
8.8N 139.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.0N 138.9E APPROXIMATELY 53 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE AND ENHANCED INFRARED 
IMAGERY DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION COVERED BY DENSE 
CONVECTION. A 291849 SSMIS 91GHZ PASS CONFIRMED THE TIGHTLY CONSOLIDATED 
LLCC TO THE SE OF YAP, CENTERED ON THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF THE DEEP 
CONVECTIVE MASS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT WHILE THE STRONG 
UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW UP TO 40-50 KNOTS IS PRESENT ACROSS THE 
REGION, 94W IS COCOONED WITHIN A FAVORABLE BUBBLE OF LOW (5-10KT) VWS, 
NESTLED UNDER A REGION OF HIGHLY DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT.  THE SYSTEM HAS 
GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND A GOOD FUEL SOURCE OF 30C SST AND 125KJ 
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. THE 850MB VORTICITY CHART ALSO DEPICTS A STRONG, 
SYMMETRICAL VORTICITY SIGNATURE ASSOCIATED WITH 94W. GLOBAL MODELS JUMPED 
BACK ON BOARD WITH DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM, SHOWING A SLOW AND GRADUAL 
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS WITH A WOBBLY TRACK WEST-
NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE PHILIPPINES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO 
BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
302300Z.//
NNNN