ABPW10 PGTW 290600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/290600Z-300600ZOCT2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/290151ZOCT2022//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/281221ZOCT2022//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE 
FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 29OCT22 0000Z, TROPICAL STORM 26W (NALGAE) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 13.6N 122.2E, APPROXIMATELY 92 NM SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, 
PHILIPPINES, AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 55 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 70 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 290300) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
8.5N 139.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.9N 139.9E, APPROXIMATELY 112 NM 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YAP. AN ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICT CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A PARTLY EXPOSED 
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLC) WHICH IS ALSO DEPICTED IN A 290049Z 
ASCAT METOP-B SCATTEROMETER IMAGE WITH WINDS RANGING FROM 15-20KT IN 
THE NORTHERN QUADRANT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE REMAIN MARGINALLY 
FAVORABLE WITH EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, VERY WARM (29-30C) SST, 
OFFSET BY MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25KTS) VWS. THE LATEST GLOBAL NUMERICAL 
MODEL RUNS NOW AGREE THAT INVEST 94W WILL TAKE A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD 
TRAJECTORY AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS 
DUE TO THE HIGH VWS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 
1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF B (WTPN21 PGTW 
281230) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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