WTPN21 PGTW 281230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.3N 141.1E TO 7.8N 137.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 281200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 8.2N 140.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
8.5N 139.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.2N 140.3E, APPROXIMATELY 147 NM 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED EIR AND A 281033Z AMSU-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE 
IMAGE DEPICT CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A RAPIDLY 
CONSOLIDATING LLC WHICH IS ALSO DEPICTED IN A RECENT SCATTEROMETER IMAGE 
WITH 20-25KT WINDS IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS 
HAVE IMPROVED SLIGHTLY BUT REMAIN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH INCREASED 
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, VERY WARM (30-31C) SST, OFFSET BY MODERATE TO 
HIGH (20-25KTS) VWS. THE LATEST GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODEL RUNS NOW AGREE 
THAT INVEST 94W WILL TAKE A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY AND STEADILY 
INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS CONDITIONS IMPROVE. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS 
HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
291230Z.//
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