ABPW10 PGTW 260600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/260600Z-270600ZOCT2022//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
11.6N 135.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 134.9E, APPROXIMATELY 938 NM 
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA, JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI) 
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH FLARING, 
DISORGANIZED CONVECTIVE BANDING EXTENDING IN A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST 
ORIENTATION IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM. A 260011Z ASCAT METOP-
B PASS REVEALS A NICE SIZED WIND FIELD OF 15-20 KNOTS WRAPPING TOWARDS 
THE LLCC WITH A PLETHORA OF 25-30 KNOTS WINDS EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERN 
SECTION. 93W STILL HAS SOME WORK TO DO TO GET DOWN TO A MORE 
CONSOLIDATED AND VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM, BUT ENVIRONMENTAL 
CONDITIONS ARE HIGHLY FAVORABLE WITH GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW 
(5-10KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (SST), AND INCREASES IN THE 850MB VORTICITY SIGNATURES. 
DETERMINISTIC AND PROBABILISTIC MODELS ARE IN ALIGNMENT THAT THE 
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGER CIRCULATION WILL CONSOLIDATE MORE INTO 
A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER, AND RAPIDLY DEEPEN AND INTENSIFY AS 
IT WANDERS TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 260200) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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