ABPW10 PGTW 251930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/251930Z-260600ZOCT2022//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
11.6N 130.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 135.7E, APPROXIMATELY 168 NM 
WEST-NORTHWEST OF YAP. INVEST AREA 93W HAS BEEN RELOCATED SIGNIFICANTLY 
TO THE EAST BASED ON THE MOST RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) 
AND PROXY VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WHICH SHOWS A MONSOON DEPRESSION-
LIKE AND ELONGATED SYSTEM WITH A DEVELOPING CENTER IN THE FAR EASTERN 
END OF THE CIRCULATION. DEEP CONVECTION IS FLARING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 
HEMISPHERE OF THE CIRCULATION, PUSHED TO THE SOUTH BY RELATIVELY LOW BUT 
PERSISTENT NORTHERLY SHEAR, AND ALLOWING FOR THE LOW LEVEL CYCLONICALLY 
CURVED BANDS TO BECOME EVIDENT TO THE NORTH. THESE FEATURES, ALONG WITH 
A 251632Z ATMS 165GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH SHOWED CYCLONICALLY CURVED 
BANDING FEATURES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLARING CONVECTION, PROVIDED 
ADDITIONAL CONFIDENCE TO MOVE THE POSITION EASTWARD. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH A POINT 
SOURCE JUST TO THE SOUTH, LOW (5-10KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), 
STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT, AND WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES 
(SST). WHILE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE, THE DISORGANIZED 
AND MONSOON DEPRESSION-LIKE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM MEANS THAT IT WILL TAKE 
A BIT OF TIME TO CONSOLIDATE. GLOBAL MODELS DO HOWEVER AGREE THAT THE 
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGER CIRCULATION WILL CONSOLIDATE DOWN INTO A 
WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER, AND RAPIDLY DEEPEN AND INTENSIFY AS IT 
TRACKS TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: RELOCATED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1).//
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