WTIO21 PGTW 221500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92B)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.4N 90.7E TO 19.5N 89.6E WITHIN THE 
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED 
TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 221430Z INDICATES THAT A 
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 90.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING 
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
11.6N 93.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 90.6E, APPROXIMATELY 475 NM SOUTH 
OF CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING AND DEEP 
CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 
221213Z SSMIS 91GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS CURVED DEEP 
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A MORE DEFINED LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH WARM SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (29-30C), LOW VWS (10-15KTS), AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW 
ENHANCED BY A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER INDIA. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN 
AGREEMENT WITH 92B MOVING NORTHWARD INTO BANGLADESH OVER THE NEXT TWO 
DAYS WITH STEADY DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO 
BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
231500Z.//
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