ABIO10 PGTW 211800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/211800Z-
221800ZOCT2022//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
10.3N 96.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 93.4E, APPROXIMATELY 40 NM EAST OF 
PORT BLAIR, ANDAMAN ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
(EIR) SHOWS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH FLARING BUT PERSISTENT 
AREAS OF CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHEASTERN REGION OF THE ANDAMAN SEA. THE 
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT IN THE EIR 
LOOP BUT A 211442Z PARTIAL ASCAT (METOP-B) PASS REVEALS AN ELONGATED LLCC 
WITH  SMALL PATCH OF 25-30 KT WIND BARBS 85NM TO THE NORTH IN THE 
SOUTHERN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OF DEEP CONVECTION.  ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
INDICATES INVEST 92B IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT 
CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEARS (VWS), 
MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30C). 
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 92B WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK 
GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD AS IT CONTINUES TO 
CONSOLIDATE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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