ABIO10 PGTW 210300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/210300Z-211800ZOCT2022//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
10.3N 96.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 95.0E, APPROXIMATELY 141 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF PORT BLAIR, ANDAMAN ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A PERSISTENT, BROAD ELONGATED DISTURBANCE 
IN THE SOUTHEASTERN REGION OF THE ANDAMAN SEA. THE SYSTEM IS EXHIBITING 
FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTION, WHICH IS OBSCURING A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING 
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).  AN EARLIER 202303Z SSMIS MICROWAVE 
IMAGE REVEALS SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN ELONGATED LLCC POSITIONED 
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF A CURVED FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BAND.  
EARLIER SCATTEROMETRY DATA INDICATED AN ELONGATED LLCC WITH WIND SPEEDS 
UP TO 15-20 KTS ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION.  
CURRENTLY, UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES INVEST 92B IS IN A MARGINALLY 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL 
WIND SHEARS (VWS), MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (27-28C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 92B WILL 
CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD, WHILE 
STEADILY INTENSIFYING AS THE ENVIRONMENT CONDITIONS BECOME MORE 
CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO 
BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN 1.B.(1) TO MEDIUM//
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