ABIO10 PGTW 181800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/181800Z-
191800ZOCT2022//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
12.1N 94.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 93.1E, APPROXIMATELY 21 NM EAST 
OF PORT BLAIR, ANDAMAN ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY(EIR) SHOWS A PERSISTENT, DISORGANIZED DISTURBANCE IN THE 
SOUTHEASTERN REGION OF THE ANDAMAN SEA WITH FRAGMENTED RAIN BANDS 
WRAPPING INTO A WEAK, ELONGATED, AND ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
(LLC). A PARTIAL 181545Z ASCAT-B SHOWS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LLC WITH 
A SMALL PATCH OF 20-KT WIND BARBS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES INVEST 92B IS IN AN AREA WITH LOW (5-10 KNOT) 
VWS AND MODERATE DIVERGENCE. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO 
CONDUCIVE AT 28-30C. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE LACK OF CONSOLIDATION WITH THE 
DISTURBANCE, THE ENVIRONMENT IS OVERALL JUST MARGINALLY FAVORABLE. 
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 92B WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK 
GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED 
AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 
1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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