ABPW10 PGTW 171400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/171400Z-180600ZOCT2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/170753ZOCT2022//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/171321ZOCT2022//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE 
FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 17OCT22 0600Z, TYPHOON 23W (NESAT) WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 
116.4E, APPROXIMATELY 223 NM SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, AND HAD TRACKED 
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 90 KNOTS GUSTING TO 110 
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN33 PGTW 170900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR  
27.1N 156.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 157.8E, APPROXIMATELY 700 NM 
NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND. RECENT PHASE CLASSIFICATION WORKSHEETS 
INDICATE THE SYSTEM HAS TRANSITIONED FROM SUBTROPICAL TO TROPICAL 
SYSTEM AND THUS IS NO LONGER CLASSIFIED AS A SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION. 
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT HAS BECOME ALIGNED WITH STRONG 
CONVECTION THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST. A 171106Z ASCAT 
METOP-B BULLSEYE CONFIRMS THE TROPICAL CONVERSION WITH A SYMMETRICAL 
LLCC, BUT THE WIND FIELD REMAINS LOPSIDED, WITH LIGHT WINDS IN THE 
WESTERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM, AND EMBEDDED AREAS OF 25-30 KNOT WINDS 
ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY, UNDER THE FLARING CONVECTION, WHICH ARE 
NOT CONSIDERED TO BE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE OVERALL INTENSITY OF THE 
SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS 
DUE TO A DECREASE IN VWS (DOWN TO 5-10 KNOTS), AN INCREASE IN POLEWARD 
OUTFLOW, BUT NOT MUCH A CHANGE IN THE SSTS DEPARTMENT (27-28C). GLOBAL 
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 91W HAS A BRIEF WINDOW OF 6-12 HOURS TO 
INTENSIFY BEFORE TROUGHING OUT AND GETTING PICKED UP BY AN APPROACHING 
LONGWAVE TROUGH AND TRANSITIONING ONCE AGAIN TO A SUBTROPICAL THEN 
EXTRATROPICAL LOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 
TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF B 
(WTPN21 PGTW 171330) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1) TO 
HIGH.//
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