WTPN21 PGTW 161930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 91W) CANCELLATION//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/151921Z OCT 22//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 151930) THE AREA OF 
CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 153.4E IS NOW 
LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 156.7E, APPROXIMATELY 995 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF 
YOKOSUKA, JAPAN. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A SUBTROPICAL 
DEPRESSION, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS HAVING BOTH TROPICAL AND 
MIDLATITUDE CYCLONE FEATURES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY AND A 161537Z AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A FULLY 
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A BROAD ELONGATED 
CIRCULATION IN WHICH THE CONVECTION IS BEING SHEARED AWAY TO THE 
NORTHEAST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT, WITH DECENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15KT) VWS, OFFSET BY 
COOLER (26-25C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT 
THAT THE SYSTEM IS LOSING JET SUPPORT, AND WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN 
SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO 
BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.
//
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