ABPW10 PGTW 150600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/150600Z-160600ZOCT2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/141951ZOCT2022//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/150153ZOCT2022//
REF/C/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/141952ZOCT2022//
NARR/REFS A AND C ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNINGS. REF B IS A 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 14OCT22 1800Z, TROPICAL STORM 21W (TWENTYONE) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 26.7N 158.2E, APPROXIMATELY 642 NM NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND, AND 
HAD TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 31 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS GUSTING TO 50 
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 142100 COR) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON 
THIS SYSTEM.
      (2) AT 15OCT22 0000Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W (TWENTYTHREE) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 126.6E, APPROXIMATELY 412 NM NORTHEAST OF MANILA, 
PHILIPPINES, AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTPN33 PGTW 150300) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (3) AT 14OCT22 1800Z, TROPICAL STORM 22W (SONCA) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 15.3N 108.9E, APPROXIMATELY 54 NM SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, 
AND HAD TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF C (WTPN32 PGTW 142100) FOR THE FINAL 
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (4) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
27.9N 154.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 153.7E, APPROXIMATELY 836 NM 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED 
AS A SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS HAVING BOTH 
TROPICAL AND MIDLATITUDE CYCLONE FEATURES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 150245Z AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE DATA DEPICT A 
FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH EXPANSIVE 
CONVECTIVE BANDING DISPLACED ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. CURRENTLY THE 
SYSTEM IS SITUATED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF A PFJ FINGER, WHICH LIES 
ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF A DEEP 200MB TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER 91W, 
AIDING IN THE SYSTEMS UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND ALLOWING IT TO DEEPEN. 
THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED FILL AND DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF 
DAYS AND BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. 91W IS EXPECTED TO 
BECOME STAGNANT OR DRIFT SOUTHWARD FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS AND MOVE 
INTO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, POSSIBLY TRANSITIONING TO A 
TROPICAL CYCLONE. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL 
LOSE JET SUPPORT, TAKE ON MORE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND INTENSIFY 
WHILE TRACKING SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST BEFORE TRACKING EAST-NORTHEAST 
BEYOND 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 
TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN