ABPW10 PGTW 141530
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/141530Z-150600ZOCT2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/141351ZOCT2022//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/141352ZOCT2022//
REF/C/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/140551ZOCT2022//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS. REF C IS A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 14OCT22 1200Z, TROPICAL STORM 21W (TWENTYONE) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 23.6N 157.6E, APPROXIMATELY 201 NM EAST OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA, AND 
HAD TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 25 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS GUSTING TO 
50 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 141500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) AT 14OCT22 1200Z, TROPICAL STORM 22W (SONCA) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 14.6N 110.5E, APPROXIMATELY 153 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG, 
VIETNAM, AND HAD TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTPN32 PGTW 141500) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
20.1N 130.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 129.1E, APPROXIMATELY 428 NM 
EAST OF APARRI, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS 
FLARING DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN 
PERIPHERIES OF A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. A 140030Z ASCAT-
B IMAGE REFLECTS A SWATH OF 20-25KT WINDS OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITION ARE FAVORABLE WITH MODERATE 
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15KT) VWS, 
AND WARM (29-30C) SST. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT 97W  WILL 
CONTINUE DEEPENING AS IT TRACKS WEST THROUGH THE LUZON STRAIT. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF C (WTPN21 PGTW 140600) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 27.2N 
154.6E, APPROXIMATELY 911 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN. THE 
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION, GENERALLY 
CHARACTERIZED AS HAVING BOTH TROPICAL AND MIDLATITUDE CYCLONE 
FEATURES. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS EXPANSIVE 
CONVECTIVE BANDING DISPLACED IN THE OUTER PERIPHERY. A 141120Z ASCAT-C 
BULLSEYE PASS REVEALS A DEFINED BUT ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH AN 
EXPANSIVE ASYMMETRICAL WINDFIELD AND SWATH OF 25-30 KT WINDS IN THE 
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. CURRENTLY THE SYSTEM IS SITUATED UNDER THE 
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A 500MB SUBTROPICAL LOW WITH HIGH (30KT) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAK BAROCLINICITY. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN 
AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK POLEWARD AND GET ABSORBED BY A 
STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. FOR HAZARDS AND WARNINGS, 
REFERENCE THE FLEET WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS 
PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST AUTHORITY. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION IN PARA. 
1.C.(1). AS A LOW.//
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