WTPN21 PGTW 140600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 97W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
135 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 19.5N 129.4E TO 19.5N 123.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 140600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 19.5N 129.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
20.1N 130.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 129.1E, APPROXIMATELY 428 NM EAST 
OF APARRI, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING DEEP 
CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERIES OF A 
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. A 140030Z ASCAT-B IMAGE REFLECTS A 
SWATH OF 20-25KT WINDS OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL 
CONDITION ARE FAVORABLE WITH MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, STRONG 
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15KT) VWS, AND WARM (29-30C) SST. 
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT 97W WILL CONTINUE DEEPENING AS IT 
TRACKS WEST THROUGH THE LUZON STRAIT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO 
BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
150600Z.
//
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