ABPW10 PGTW 131530
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/131530Z-140600ZOCT2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/131351ZOCT2022//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/131451ZOCT2022//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE 
FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 13OCT22 1200Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W (TWENTYONE) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 154.0E, APPROXIMATELY 475 NM EAST OF SAIPAN, AND 
HAD TRACKED EAST- NORTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS GUSTING TO 
40 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 131500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
20.4N 133.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 131.5E, APPROXIMATELY 437 NM 
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS FRAGMENTED CONVECTION MOSTLY LOCATED IN THE NORTHERN 
QUADRANT OF AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A 130432Z AMSR2 
PASS REVEALS A STEADILY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH SHALLOW BANDING 
WRAPPING INTO A MORE DEFINED (LLC). ALTHOUGH SST VALUES ARE 
CONDUCIVE AT 29-30C, THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR 
DEVELOPMENT DUE TO WEAK OUTFLOW ALOFT AND STRONG (20-25KT) VWS. THE 
SYSTEM SITS BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH THAT 
IS THE PREDOMINANT FEATURE HINDERING THE SYSTEM'S DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL 
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 97W WILL STEADILY INTENSIFY 
AS IT TRACKS TOWARD LUZON. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS 
MEDIUM.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
12.6N 114.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 112.9E, APPROXIMATELY 366 NM 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HUE, VIETNAM. ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 
131051Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE 
BANDING IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO A BROAD LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINAL 
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT AS INDICATED BY WARM (29-30C) SSTS, STRONG 
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, OFFSET BY 20-25 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. 
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND 
STEADY DEVELOPMENT AS THE NORTHEAST SURGE WINDS WRAP INTO THE SYSTEM. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF B (WTPN21 PGTW 
131500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(2) TO 
HIGH.//
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