ABPW10 PGTW 131100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/131100Z-140600ZOCT2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/130751ZOCT2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 13OCT22 0600Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W (TWENTYONE) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 152.7E, APPROXIMATELY 399 NM EAST OF SAIPAN, AND 
HAD TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 25 KNOTS GUSTING TO 
35 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 130900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
20.4N 133.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 131.5E, APPROXIMATELY 437 NM 
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS FRAGMENTED CONVECTION MOSTLY LOCATED IN THE NORTHERN 
QUADRANT OF AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A 130432Z AMSR2 
PASS REVEALS A STEADILY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH SHALLOW BANDING 
WRAPPING INTO A MORE DEFINED (LLC). ALTHOUGH SST VALUES ARE 
CONDUCIVE AT 29-30C, THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR 
DEVELOPMENT DUE TO WEAK OUTFLOW ALOFT AND STRONG (20-25KT) VWS. THE 
SYSTEM SITS BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH THAT 
IS THE PREDOMINANT FEATURE HINDERING THE SYSTEM'S DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL 
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 97W WILL STEADILY INTENSIFY 
AS IT TRACKS TOWARD LUZON. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO 
MEDIUM.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
11.9N 114.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 114.1E, APPROXIMATELY 443 NM 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HUE, VIETNAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING INTO A BROAD, WEAKLY-
DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 122323Z ISS TEMPEST 
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES A WEAK LLCC WITH PERSISTENT, 
DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY ASSOCIATED 
WITH A NORTHEASTERLY SURGE EVENT. PREVIOUS SCATTEROMETER IMAGERY 
SHOWED A SWATH OF CONVERGENT NORTHERLY WINDS AT 20-25 KNOTS EAST OF 
VIETNAM. A 130212Z ASCAT-C PARTIAL IMAGE REVEALS A BROAD CIRCULATION 
WITH 10-15 KNOT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE SYSTEM IS 
LOCATED UNDER DIFFLUENT EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT OFFSET BY 15-20 KNOTS OF 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO 
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH STEADY DEVELOPMENT AS THE NORTHEAST SURGE 
WINDS WRAP INTO THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO 
MEDIUM.//
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