ABPW10 PGTW 130600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/130600Z-140600ZOCT2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/130151ZOCT2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 13OCT22 0000Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W (TWENTYONE) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 151.4E, APPROXIMATELY 327 NM EAST OF SAIPAN, AND 
HAD TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 25 KNOTS GUSTING TO 
35 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 130300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
19.9N 137.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 133.1E, APPROXIMATELY 464 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, JAPAN. ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS SPARSE SHORT-LIVED CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY 
GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS IT WRAPS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. A 
130124Z ASCAT-C PASS REVEALS A BROAD AREA OF WEAK TURNING IN THE 
LOWER LEVELS WITH 15-20KT WINDS ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT 
DUE TO MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25KT) VWS, WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, 
AND WARM (29-30C) SST VALUES. THE SYSTEM SITS BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL 
LOW POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH THAT IS THE PREDOMINANT FEATURE HINDERING 
THE SYSTEM'S DEVELOPMENT. CURRENT AND PREVIOUS MODEL CONSENSUS REFLECT 
AGREEMENT WITH THE SYSTEM TRACKING TOWARDS LUZON WITH A STEADY 
INTENSIFICATION TIMELINE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 
ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
11.9N 114.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 114.1E, APPROXIMATELY 443 NM 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HUE, VIETNAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING INTO A BROAD, WEAKLY-
DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 122323Z ISS TEMPEST 
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES A WEAK LLCC WITH PERSISTENT, 
DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY ASSOCIATED 
WITH A NORTHEASTERLY SURGE EVENT. PREVIOUS SCATTEROMETER IMAGERY 
SHOWED A SWATH OF CONVERGENT NORTHERLY WINDS AT 20-25 KNOTS EAST OF 
VIETNAM. A 130212Z ASCAT-C PARTIAL IMAGE REVEALS A BROAD CIRCULATION 
WITH 10-15 KNOT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE SYSTEM IS 
LOCATED UNDER DIFFLUENT EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT OFFSET BY 15-20 KNOTS OF 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO 
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH STEADY DEVELOPMENT AS THE NORTHEAST SURGE 
WINDS WRAP INTO THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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