ABPW10 PGTW 130200 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS CORRECTED/REISSUED/130200Z-130600ZOCT2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/130151ZOCT2022//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/130152ZOCT2022//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE 
FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 13OCT22 0000Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W (TWENTYONE) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 151.4E, APPROXIMATELY 327 NM EAST OF SAIPAN, AND 
HAD TRACKED EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 25 KNOTS GUSTING TO 
35 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 130300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
15.8N 125.4E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A TORPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SEE REF B 
(WTPN21 PGTW 130200) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. 
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
16.6N 142.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 137.7W, APPROXIMATELY 364 NM 
SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 
122157 SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS AN OBSCURED BROAD LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH 
OF THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINALLY FAVORABLE 
CONDITIONS WITH LOW (05-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM (30-
31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS), AND DECENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. 
GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SLOW NORTH NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH INTENSITY 
GUIDANCE SHOWING A GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KTS. MINIMUM 
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR 
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.
      (3) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
11.9N 115.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 114.4E, APPROXIMATELY 418 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF HUE, VIETNAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (EIR) AND A 121222Z GMI COLOR ENHANCED 89GHZ MICROWAVE PASS 
SHOWS AN EXPOSED LLCC WITH FLARING CONVECTION ON THE NORTHWEST AND 
SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES. EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS STRONG 
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE LLCC, ASSOCIATED 
WITH A NORTHEASTERLY SURGE EVENT, BUT MUCH LIGHTER WINDS NEAR THE 
SYSTEM CENTER AND TO THE SOUTHEAST.ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES 
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT DUE TO NO DISTINCT 
OUTFLOW ESTABLISHED, VWS RANGING FROM 10-25 KTS, AND WARM (29-30C) 
SSTS. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON INVEST 90W WILL QUICKLY CONSOLIDATE OVER 
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS IT SLIDES TO THE WEST AND INTERACTS WITH A 
BARRIER JET FORMING ALONG THE COAST OF VIETNAM. THIS BARRIER JET IS 
EXPECTED TO CAUSE WINDS TO DEFLECT OFF THE TERRAIN AND AS 90W NEARS 
THIS EVENT, THOSE WINDS WILL BE DRAWN IN AND GIVE IT THE EXTRA JUICE 
IT NEEDS TO REACH WARNING CRITERIA PRIOR TO LAND FALL. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: CANCELLED TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION 
ALERT IN PARA 1.B(1). DOWNGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(2) TO LOW.
4. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED POSITION FOR TD 21W IN PARA 
1.A.(1) AND 90W IN PARA 1.B.(3).
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