ABPW10 PGTW 121500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/121500Z-130600ZOCT2022// REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/121351ZOCT2022// REF/B/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/120521ZOCT2022// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AND REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: (1) AT 12OCT22 1500Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W (TWENTYONE) WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 151.5E, APPROXIMATELY 318 NM EAST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAX SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 25 KNOTS GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 121500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 124.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 125.4E. APPROXIMATELY 273 NM ENE OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI), AND MICROWAVE DATA DEPICT AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) DETACHED FROM THE MAIN MID TO UPPER LEVEL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE TO THE NORTHWEST. AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETRY PARTIAL PASS REVEALS THAT ELONGATED LLC WITH WIND FIELDS OF 20-25KTS FLOWING TOWARDS THE MAIN DETACHED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE THAT HAS BEEN PUSHED ALONG BY THE TUTT CELL NORTHEAST OF IT. THIS IS ALSO FURTHER CONFIRMED BY AN 112212Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE BULLSEYE SHOWS THE LLCC EXPOSED WITH MAIN CONVECTION IN A WEST TO EAST ORIENTATION LEADING TO EASTERN LUZON. ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 98W TO DEVELOP IN, BUT THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY IS RAPIDLY CLOSING DUE TO THE ASSOCIATED VORTICITY BEING FORKED OVER TO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, NEUTRAL (15-20KTS) VWS, A DIMINISHING UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE DIRECTLY OVER TOP OF THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION, AND WARM 31-30C SSTS. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS 98W MEANDERING OFF THE EASTERN COAST OF LUZON AND BLOCKED BY THE TERRAIN AND ONGOING, BUT WEAKENING NORTHEASTERLY SURGE FLOW. AS EARLY AS TAU 12, MODEL TRACKERS JUMP SHIP ON 98W AND FOCUS MORE ON OTHER INVEST AREAS. THE GUIDANCE REMAINS UNRELIABLE AT THIS POINT BEYOND 36 HOURS WITH A MAJORITY OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWING INTENSIFICATION BUT SIMILAR TO THE TRACK FORECAST, IT IS JUMPING TO A DIFFERENT CIRCULATION AND THUS IS NOT REPRESENTATIVE OF THE ACTUAL INTENSITY TREND FOR 98W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF B (WTPN21 PGTW 120530) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 142.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 142.6E, APPROXIMATELY 309 NM NORTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN OBSCURED BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. A 120051Z ASCAT METOP-C PASS SHOWS THAT THE LLC REMAINS BROAD AND ELONGATED WITH MULTIPLE CIRCULATIONS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH LOW (05-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM (30- 31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS), AND DECENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SLOW NORTH NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWING A GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM. (3) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 115.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 115.E, APPROXIMATELY 244 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PUERTO PRINCESA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) AND A 121222Z GMI COLOR ENHANCED 89GHZ MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS AN EXPOSED LLCC WITH FLARING CONVECTION ON THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES. EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS STRONG NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE LLCC, ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTHEASTERLY SURGE EVENT, BUT MUCH LIGHTER WINDS NEAR THE SYSTEM CENTER AND TO THE SOUTHEAST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT DUE TO NO DISTINCT OUTFLOW ESTABLISHED, VWS RANGING FROM 10-25 KTS, AND WARM (29-30C) SSTS. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON INVEST 90W WILL QUICKLY CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS IT SLIDES TO THE WEST AND INTERACTS WITH A BARRIER JET FORMING ALONG THE COAST OF VIETNAM. THIS BARRIER JET IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE WINDS TO DEFLECT OFF THE TERRAIN AND AS 90W NEARS THIS EVENT, THOSE WINDS WILL BE DRAWN IN AND GIVE IT THE EXTRA JUICE IT NEEDS TO REACH WARNING CRITERIA PRIOR TO LAND FALL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM. (4) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 151.1E IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. SEE PARA. 1.A(1) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (5) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(3) TO MEDIUM AND AREA IN PAR 1.B.(4) TO WARNING STATUS.// NNNN