WTPN21 PGTW 120530 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 98W) REISSUED// REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/110521ZOCT2022// AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN A 155 NM RADIUS OF 16.2N 125.3E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 101200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 125.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 124.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 125.4E. ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI), AND MICROWAVE DATA DEPICT AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) DETACHED FROM THE MAIN MID TO UPPER LEVEL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE TO THE NORTHWEST. AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETRY PARTIAL PASS REVEALS THAT ELONGATED LLC WITH WIND FIELDS OF 20-25KTS FLOWING TOWARDS THE MAIN DETACHED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE THAT HAS BEEN PUSHED ALONG BY THE TUTT CELL NORTHEAST OF IT. THIS IS ALSO FURTHER CONFIRMED BY AN 112212Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE BULLSEYE SHOWS THE LLCC EXPOSED WITH MAIN CONVECTION IN A WEST TO EAST ORIENTATION LEADING TO EASTERN LUZON. ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 98W TO DEVELOP IN, BUT THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY IS RAPIDLY CLOSING DUE TO THE ASSOCIATED VORTICITY BEING FORKED OVER TO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, NEUTRAL (15-20KTS) VWS, A DIMINISHING UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE DIRECTLY OVER TOP OF THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION, AND WARM 31-30C SSTS. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS 98W MEANDERING OFF THE EASTERN COAST OF LUZON AND BLOCKED BY THE TERRAIN AND ONGOING, BUT WEAKENING NORTHEASTERLY SURGE FLOW. AS EARLY AS TAU 12, MODEL TRACKERS JUMP SHIP ON 98W AND FOCUS MORE ON OTHER INVEST AREAS. THE GUIDANCE REMAINS UNRELIABLE AT THIS POINT BEYOND 36 HOURS WITH A MAJORITY OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWING INTENSIFICATION BUT SIMILAR TO THE TRACK FORECAST, IT IS JUMPING TO A DIFFERENT CIRCULATION AND THUS IS NOT REPRESENTATIVE OF THE ACTUAL INTENSITY TREND FOR 98W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 110530). 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 130530Z.// NNNN