ABPW10 PGTW 112000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/REISSUED/112000Z-120600ZOCT2022//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
16.0N 124.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 125.5E, APPROXIMATELY 268 NM 
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE 
SOUTHEAST SIDE OF INTENSE BUT DISORGANIZED CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS REVEALS A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE DIRECTLY OVER TOP OF 
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION, PROVIDING GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW (10-
15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WITH SUPPORTIVELY WARM (30-31C) 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS). MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SYSTEM 
DRIFTING SLOW TOWARDS THE WEST BUT REMAINING EAST OF LUZON, BLOCKED 
BOTH BY THE TERRAIN OF LUZON ITSELF AND THE STRONG NE SURGE FLOW 
ACTING AS A BARRIER. THE MODEL TRACKERS JUMP CIRCULATIONS AFTER ABOUT 
TAU 24, INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA INTO A SEPARATE AND DISTINCT AREA OF 
VORTICITY. THUS THE GUIDANCE IS UNRELIABLE AT THIS POINT, ESPECIALLY 
BEYOND ABOUT 36 HOURS. UP TO THAT POINT THE BULK OF THE INTENSITY 
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THE SYSTEM TO 
DEVELOP BUT THEN DEPICTS WEAKENING AND ULTIMATE DISSIPATION AFTER TAU 
36 TO THE EAST OF LUZON. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO 
BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A 
(WTPN21 PGTW 110530) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. 
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
14.1N 142.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 142.0E, APPROXIMATELY 193 NM 
NORTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS AN OBSCURED BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH MOST OF 
THE CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. AN 111220Z ASCAT 
METOP-C PASS SHOWS THAT THE LLC IS  BROAD AND ELONGATED WITH THE 
HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY RANGING FROM 15-20 KTS. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH LOW (05-10 
KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (SSTS), AND DECENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE 
ON A SLOW NORTH NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWING A 
GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.5N 
118.6E, APPROXIMATELY 150 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. 
AN ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY ANIMATED ENHANCED 
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A POORLY ORGANIZED 
CIRCULATION WITH SCATTERED FLARING CONVECTION. AN 111309Z ASCAT 
METOP-B BULLSEYE PASS SHOWS 90W BROAD ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH A 
STRONG WIND FIELD IN THE NORTHERN QUADRANT RANGING FROM 25-30 KTS. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT 
WITH LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM (29-30C) SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS), AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL 
MODELS AGREE ON INVEST 90W RAPIDLY DEVELOPING WITHIN THE SOUTH CHINA 
SEA AND TRACKING SOUTHWEST TOWARDS VIETNAM IN THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO LOW.
      (4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED 90W TO A LOW.
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