ABPW10 PGTW 110600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/110600Z-120600ZOCT2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/110521ZOCT2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
16.2N 124.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 124.7E, APPROXIMATELY 331 NM 
EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND SCATTEROMETRY DATA DEPICT A WELL-ROUNDED 
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION TUCKED BENEATH THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF INTENSE BUT 
DISORGANIZED CONVECTION WHICH HAS PERSISTED FOR THE PAST FOUR HOURS. A 
110112Z ASCAT METOP-C PARTIAL PASS SHOWED 30-35KT NORTHERLY WINDS 
ASSOCIATED WITH A NE SURGE EVENT, SURGING DOWN FROM THE LUZON 
STRAIGHT, AND 20-25KTS WINDS ON THE EAST SIDE OF LUZON BEGINNING TO 
WRAP TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC. WINDS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE 
CIRCULATION ARE MUCH LOWER, IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE BASED ON EARLIER 
SCATTEROMETER DATA. ANALYSIS REVEALS A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE 
DIRECTLY OVER TOP OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION, PROVIDING GOOD RADIAL 
OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS), WITH SUPPORTIVELY 
WARM SSTS (30-31C). MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SYSTEM DRIFTING SLOW 
TOWARDS THE WEST BUT REMAINING EAST OF LUZON, BLOCKED BOTH BY THE 
TERRAIN OF LUZON ITSELF AND THE STRONG NE SURGE FLOW ACTING AS A 
BARRIER. THE MODEL TRACKERS JUMP CIRCULATIONS AFTER ABOUT TAU 36, INTO 
THE SOUTH CHINA SEA INTO A SEPARATE AND DISTINCT AREA OF VORTICITY. 
THUS THE GUIDANCE IS UNRELIABLE AT THIS POINT, ESPECIALLY BEYOND ABOUT 
36 HOURS. UP TO THAT POINT THE BULK OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 
A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP BUT THEN 
DEPICTS WEAKENING AND ULTIMATE DISSIPATION AFTER TAU 36 TO THE EAST OF 
LUZON. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 110530) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
13.3N 143.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 142.4E, APPROXIMATELY 143 NM 
WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS AN ELONGATED BROAD CIRCULATION WITH AMPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS 
WRAPPING INTO AN ILL-DEFINED BUT STEADILY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OBSCURED BY CONVECTIVE BLOW OFF. AN 110020Z 
ASCAT METOP-B PARTIAL PASS SHOWS HALF THE STORY OF 97W WITH WIND 
FIELDS ON THE EASTERN EDGE RANGING FROM 20-30KTS (UNDER A CONVECTIVE 
BAND) WITH LESSER FIELDS OF 10-15 KTS ON THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN 
PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH 
LOW (05-10 KTS) VWS, WARM 30C SSTS, AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW PROVIDED 
BY AN ANTICYCLONE OVER 97W AND A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTH WHICH IS 
INCREASING THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SLOW NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWING A GRADUAL 
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 
ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO 
MEDIUM.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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