ABPW10 PGTW 100600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/100600Z-110600ZOCT2022//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
15.9N 132.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 125.9E, APPROXIMATELY 320 NM 
EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 100133Z ASCAT-C PASS DEPICT IMPROVING 
CONSOLIDATION AS INDICATED BY A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION, FLARING 
CONVECTION IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT, AND 20-25KT EASTERLY 
CONVERGENT FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR INTENSIFICATION AS DEPICTED BY 
STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. NUMERICAL MODELS 
INDICATE A WESTWARD TRACK WITH STEADY DEVELOPMENT IN THE PHILIPPINE 
SEA AND GREATER INTENSIFICATION IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA.  MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.3N 
143.4E, APPROXIMATELY 75 NM WEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING INTO A BROAD 
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A 100401Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE 
INDICATES LIMITED, FRAGMENTED BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY 
WITH A DISORGANIZED, POORLY-DEFINED LLC. HOWEVER, A 100041Z ASCAT-B 
IMAGE SHOWS AN ELONGATED, DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 20-25 KNOT 
EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY, 20-25 KNOT SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT, AND 5-10 KNOT WINDS 
ELSEWHERE. ADDITIONALLY, SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM PGUM INDICATE 
SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 8 KNOTS, SLP NEAR 1005.4MB AND A NOTEWORTHY 24-
HOUR SLP DECREASE OF 2.1MB. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A 
MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET 
BY LOW TO MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES ARE VERY CONDUCIVE AT 30-31C. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE 
STEADY DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SLOWLY 
NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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