ABIO10 PGTW 051800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN 
OCEAN/051800Z-061800ZOCT2022//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
9.6S 87.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.0S 88.0E, APPROXIMATELY 710 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
AND A 051233Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD 
LINES WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH 
DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR (30 TO 40 KNOTS) OFFSET BY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (27-
28C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A WESTWARD TO 
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS WITH GRADUAL 
INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 
TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
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