WTXS21 PGTW 050200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.3S 87.8E TO 12.4S 84.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 100200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.6S 87.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
9.1S 88.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.6S 87.6E, APPROXIMATELY 908NM EAST OF 
DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 042315Z 
SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING INTO 
A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION OVER 
THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY-
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (30 TO 40 KNOTS) 
OFFSET BY ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (27-28C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 
TRACK OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS 
UPGRADED TO HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
060200Z.
//
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