ABIO10 PGTW 041130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/041130Z-041800ZOCT2022//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
7.6S 89.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.8S 88.8E, APPROXIMATELY 980NM EAST OF 
DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES LOW-
LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING INTO A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED, DEFINED LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE 
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A 040750Z AMSR2 89GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE 
IMAGE REVEALS A BROAD, DEFINED LLCC WITH FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE 
BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A 040345Z ASCAT-C IMAGE SHOWS A 
SWATH OF 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE 
CIRCULATION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25 TO 30 KNOTS) OFFSET BY 
ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A WESTWARD TO WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1) TO 
MEDIUM.//
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