ABIO10 PGTW 031430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE 
INDIAN OCEAN REISSUED/031430Z-031800ZOCT2022//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO 
COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF 
AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) HAS 
PERSISTED NEAR 5.8S 89.1E, APPROXIMATELY 600 NM 
NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A BROAD CIRCULATION 
WITH WIDESPREAD DISORGANIZED CONVECTION HIDING A 
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT IS 92S.  
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE RIPE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT 
OF 92S WITH LOW TO MODERATE (5-15KTS) VWS, WARM (28-29C) 
SSTS, AND FAIR RADIAL OUTFLOW. 92S IS A SUMATRA LOW 
THAT IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER WEST OUT OF ITS USUAL 
HANGOUT AND WITH A MIX OF MONSOONAL FLOW AND CROSS 
EQUATORIAL FLOW, WILL AID THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 
48-72HOURS IN GAINING MORE CONSOLIDATION AND TRACTION 
IN BECOMING A LOWER TIER TROPICAL DEPRESSION. GLOBAL 
MODELS AGREE ON INVEST 92S BECOMING MORE CONSOLIDATED, 
YET THEY DISAGREE ON WIND FIELDS SYMMETRY THAT CAN HELP 
DEFINE PARTS OF ITS STRENGTH. ENSEMBLES ARE ON THE BAND 
WAGON AS WELL WITH LARGE MEMBER GROUPINGS FOR 92S 
HAVING AN EXPECTANCY OF AT LEAST TD STRENGTH BUT 
NO MSLP DROPPING BELOW 1000MB AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS 
WESTWARD.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL 
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN 
PARA 2.B.(1) TO LOW.//
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