WTPN21 PHNC 022100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 98E)// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 115 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.5N 111.7W TO 16.2N 112.7W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 19 TO 24 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 021800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 111.6W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98E) IS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 111.6W, APPROXIMATELY 255NM SOUTH OF SOCORRO, MEXICO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 021740Z GOES-17 INFRARED IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING, PARTIALLY OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH SCATTERED DEEPENING CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN QUADRANTS. A PREVIOUS 020517Z ASCAT-C IMAGE SHOWS A DEFINED, BROAD CIRCULATION WITH 20 KT WINDS TO THE SOUTH. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN MODERATE AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 98E WILL MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 19 TO 24 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 032100Z.// NNNN