WTPN21 PGTW 272130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 97W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.9N 133.9E TO 24.6N 131.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 17 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 272100Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 19.3N 133.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
17.9N 134.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 133.7E, APPROXIMATELY 536NM 
SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, JAPAN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE 
IMAGERY AND A 271644Z ASMR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION IN THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF 
THE SYSTEM. THERE IS FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLC. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG CHANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 
FORMATION WITH VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, LOW (10-15KTS) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN 
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 97W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHWEST AND 
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24-48HRS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
282130Z.
//
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