ABPW10 PGTW 270600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/270600Z-280600ZSEP2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/270152ZSEP2022//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/270151ZSEP2022//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 27SEP22 0000Z, TYPHOON 18W (NORU) WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 
112.2E, APPROXIMATELY 513 NM WEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, AND HAD 
TRACKED WESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 125 KNOTS GUSTING TO 150 
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN32 PGTW 270300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) AT 27SEP22 0000Z, TROPICAL STORM 19W (KULAP) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 28.0N 141.9E, APPROXIMATELY 195 NM NORTH OF IWO TO, AND HAD 
TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS GUSTING TO 55 
KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTPN31 PGTW 270300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
14.0N 136.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 134.9E, APPROXIMATELY 537 NM 
SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
(MSI) AND A 270432Z AMSR2 89 GHZ IMAGE SHOW A BROAD AND ELONGATED 
CIRCULATION WITH DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN AND 
SOUTHERN QUADRANTS OF THE AREA. AN EARLIER 270030Z ASCAT-B 
SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED TWO CIRCULATION CENTERS, A BROADER ONE TO 
THE SOUTH AND A SMALLER ONE TO THE NORTH. THE BEST TRACK POSITION HAS 
BEEN ADJUSTED TO FIT WITHIN THE CENTROID BETWEEN THESE TWO 
CIRCULATIONS. THE SAME FEATURES CAN BE SEEN WITHIN THE MSI, WITH A 
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) CAN BE SEEN 
PEAKING FROM BENEATH THE CIRRUS CLOUD SHIELD AND THE AFOREMENTIONED 
MICROWAVE IMAGE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE INVEST IS IN A 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY ZESTY (29-30C) SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND LOW (5-10KTS) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THOUGH SHEAR HAS BEEN ON THE RISE, A LOOK AT THE 
850MB VORTICITY CHART SHOWS PLENTY OF PVA TO POSSIBLY FIGHT OFF THE 
RISE OF SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 97W 
WILL TRACK NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS AND CONTINUE TO 
CONSOLIDATE AND SLOWLY INTENSIFY.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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