WTPN21 PGTW 242230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 96W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.1N 146.5E TO 24.1N 142.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 242200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.0N 146.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
15.4N 145.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 146.5E, APPROXIMATELY 188 NM 
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
AND A 242055Z SSMIS 91GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING 
SYSTEM WITH A SOUTHERN FORMATIVE BAND WRAPPING INTO AN EXPOSED LLC. 
INVEST 96W IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MONSOON 
TROUGH, WHICH HAS MAINTAINED EXTENSIVE CONVERGENT WESTERLIES AND 
SOUTHERLIES ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERIES. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT AS CHARACTERIZED 
BY WARM (29-30C) SST, LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND STRONG 
EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN RELATIVELY 
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT OVERALL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT 
WITHIN 24 HOURS AS INVEST 96W TRACKS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WHILE QUICKLY 
INTENSIFYING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
252230Z.//
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