ABPW10 PGTW 241730
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/241730Z-250600ZSEP2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/241351ZSEP2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 24SEP22 1200Z, TYPHOON 18W (NORU) WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 
126.0E, APPROXIMATELY 296 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, AND 
HAD TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 75 KNOTS GUSTING TO 90 
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN32 PGTW 241500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
12.8N 147.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 145.7E, APPROXIMATELY 138 NM 
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 
A 241532Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OVER A 
BROAD DISORGANIZED CORE. A RECENT SCATTEROMETRY PASS REVEALS AN ELONGATED 
CIRCULATION EAST OF THE MARIANA ISLANDS WITH A SWATH OF 25KT WINDS TO THE 
EASTERN PERIPHERY. INVEST 96W IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF 
THE MONSOON TROUGH, WHICH HAS MAINTAINED EXTENSIVE CONVERGENT WESTERLIES 
AND SOUTHERLIES ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERIES. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT AS CHARACTERIZED BY 
WARM (29-30C) SST, LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND STRONG 
EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD 
AGREEMENT THAT OVERALL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITHIN 
24-48 HOURS AS INVEST 96W TRACKS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WHILE QUICKLY 
INTENSIFYING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 23 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO MEDIUM.//
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