ABPW10 PGTW 240600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/240600Z-250600ZSEP2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/240152ZSEP2022//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/240151ZSEP2022//
NARR/REF REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE FINAL WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 24SEP22 0000Z, TROPICAL STORM 18W (NORU) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 16.4N 128.0E, APPROXIMATELY 419 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, 
PHILIPPINES, AND HAD TRACKED WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE 
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 50 
KNOTS GUSTING TO 65 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN32 PGTW 240300) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) AT 24SEP22 0000Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (TALAS) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 33.3N 138.1E, APPROXIMATELY 144 NM SOUTHWEST OF 
YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, AND HAD TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER 
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 
20 KNOTS GUSTING TO 30 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTPN31 PGTW 240300) FOR THE 
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
12.8N 147.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 147.5E, APPROXIMATELY 163 NM 
EAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 232111Z 
SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED, FLARING 
CONVECTION WITH A BROAD, POORLY ORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. A 
240024Z ASCAT-C PASS REVEALS WEAK TROUGHING EAST OF THE MARIANA 
ISLANDS. INVEST 96W IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE 
MONSOON TROUGH, WHICH HAS MAINTAINED EXTENSIVE CONVERGENT WESTERLIES 
AND SOUTHERLIES ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERIES. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR 
DEVELOPMENT AS CHARACTERIZED BY WARM (29-30C) SST, LOW (10-15KT) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND STRONG EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW. 
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT OVERALL 
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITHIN 36-48 HOURS AS THE 
LOW TRACKS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WHILE QUICKLY INTENSIFYING. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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