WTPN21 PGTW 212130 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95W)// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS OF 17.6N 133.9E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 212100Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 134.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 133.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 134.1E, APPROXIMATELY 662 NM WEST- NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN, GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FAIRLY CONSOLIDATED CIRCULATION WITH LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HIDDEN BENEATH DEEP CONVECTIVE COVER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY OVER WARM (29-30C) SSTS, LOW (0-05KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND MEDIOCRE OUTFLOW DESPITE HAVING A POINT SOURCE ABOVE IT. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITHIN THE AREA HAS BEEN ON A STEADY DECLINE ALONG WITH VORTICITY SIGNATURES STEADILY INCREASING. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN DISARRAY ABOUT 95W. GENERAL CONSENSUS IS, IT WILL NOT DEVELOP WITHIN THE USUAL TCFA TIMELINE BUT INSTEAD BEYOND TAU 72. MODEL GUIDANCE AT THIS POINT COMPLETELY GOES AGAINST THE ENVIRONMENT AND WHAT IS CLEARLY DEPICTED ON EIR. 95W IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS WHILE MEANDERING EAST THEN GUIDANCE FROM THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) FORCES IT ALONG A WESTWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 222130Z. // NNNN