ABPW10 PGTW 212200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/212200Z-220600ZSEP2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/211951ZSEP2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 21SEP22 1800Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (SEVENTEEN) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 138.9E, APPROXIMATELY 595 NM SOUTH OF YOKOSUKA, 
JAPAN, AND HAD TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 25 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 212100) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
24.7N 140.0E IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. SEE 
PARA. 1.A.(1) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
17.9N 133.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 134.1E, APPROXIMATELY 662 NM 
WEST-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN, GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FAIRLY CONSOLIDATED CIRCULATION WITH LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HIDDEN BENEATH DEEP CONVECTIVE COVER. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY OVER WARM (29-
30C) SSTS, LOW (0-05KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND MEDIOCRE OUTFLOW 
DESPITE HAVING A POINT SOURCE ABOVE IT. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITHIN THE 
AREA HAS BEEN ON A STEADY DECLINE ALONG WITH VORTICITY SIGNATURES 
STEADILY INCREASING. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN DISARRAY ABOUT 95W.  GENERAL 
CONSENSUS IS, IT WILL NOT DEVELOP WITHIN THE USUAL TCFA TIMELINE BUT 
INSTEAD BEYOND TAU 72. MODEL GUIDANCE AT THIS POINT COMPLETELY GOES 
AGAINST THE ENVIRONMENT AND WHAT IS CLEARLY DEPICTED ON EIR. 95W IS 
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS WHILE MEANDERING EAST 
THEN GUIDANCE FROM THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) FORCES IT ALONG A 
WESTWARD TRACK.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 
TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO WARNING 
STATUS AND AREA IN PARA 1.B.(2) TO HIGH.//
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