ABPW10 PGTW 211530
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/211530Z-220600ZSEP2022//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
20.4N 139.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 140.0E, APPROXIMATELY 72 NM 
WEST OF IWO TO. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER 
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. A 201923Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A 
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLC WITH THE BULK OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE 
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY OVER WARM (29-30C) SST AND 
LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH A TROUGH SITUATED SLIGHTLY TO 
THE WEST OF 94W INCREASING THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LEADING TO AN OVERALL 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL 
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 94W WILL TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WITH GRADUAL 
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE 
MOST AGGRESSIVE MODEL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED 
AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 
1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 17.9N 
133.4E, APPROXIMATELY 735 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. 
ENHANCED INFRARED  SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A COMPACT, 
CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION THAT IS OBSCURING 
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS 
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES, LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND MEDIUM RADIAL 
OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 95W WILL 
DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 17 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA 1.B.(2).//
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