ABPW10 PGTW 210600 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS 210600Z-220600ZSEP2022// REF/A/MSG/JOINT/TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/210121ZSEP2022// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 139.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 140.7E, APPROXIMATELY 153 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. A 201923Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLC WITH THE BULK OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY OVER WARM (29-30C) SST AND LOW (10- 15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH A TROUGH SITUATED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF 94W INCREASING THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LEADING TO AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 94W WILL TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MODEL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 210130) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. NNNN