WTPN21 PGTW 210130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 22.1N 141.0E TO 26.7N 137.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 210000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 22.4N 140.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 11
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
20.4N 139.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 140.7E, APPROXIMATELY 153 NM 
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF IWO-TO. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A 
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER 
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. A 201923Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A 
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLC WITH THE BULK OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN 
SEMICIRCLE. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY OVER WARM (29-30C) SST AND LOW (10-
15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH A TROUGH SITUATED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF 
94W INCREASING THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LEADING TO AN OVERALL FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 
INVEST 94W WILL TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION 
OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MODEL. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM 
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS 
HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
220130Z.//
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