ABPW10 PGTW 200600 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS 200600Z-210600ZSEP2022// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/191953ZSEP2022// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: (1) AT 19SEP22 1800Z, TROPICAL STORM 16W (NANMADOL) WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.4N 137.1E, APPROXIMATELY 263 NM SOUTHWEST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, AND HAD TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 26 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN33 PGTW 192100) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM. (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 18.5N 138.0E, APPROXIMATELY 485 NM NORTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH WEAK FORMATIVE BANDING AND THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. A 200030 ASCAT-B BULLSEYE PASS REVEALS AN ELONGATED LLC WITH MAINLY 10-15KT WINDS AND A SWATH OF 20-25KT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH. CURRENTLY 94W IS POSITIONED ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE TUTT WITH WESTERLIES OVERHEAD INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS STILL MARGINALLY FAVORABLE DEFINED BY LOW (5-10KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 94W WILL TRACK NORTHWARD BUT DIFFER IN INTENSITY WITH GFS BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SHOWING SLOW TO MODERATE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. NNNN