WTPN21 PHNC 171300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94E) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/161500Z SEP 22//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.6N 106.6W TO 18.5N 108.5W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 19 TO 24 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 170000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.7N 106.7W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94E) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
14.5N 106.9W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR  14.7N 106.7W, APPROXIMATELY 288 NM 
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO, MEXICO. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 171140Z GOES-17 IR IMAGE DEPICT A PARTLY 
OBSCURED YET DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION, WITH DEEP CONVECTION TO THE 
WEST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT 
DEFINED BY  WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, FAIR EQUATORWARD 
OUTFLOW AND LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE 
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 94E WILL TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE 
NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 19 TO 
24 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PHNC 
161500).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
181300Z.
//
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