WTPN21 PHNC 161500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUED (INVEST 94E)//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/151451ZSEP22//
REF/B/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/160930ZSEP22//
NARR/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT. REF B IS A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.1N 106.6W TO 17.1N 108.3W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 161200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.5N 106.9W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94E) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
15.2N 106.3W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR  14.5N 106.9W, APPROXIMATELY 1231 NM 
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, CA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 161148Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A PARTLY 
OBSCURED YET DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION, WITH DEEP CONVECTION TO THE 
EAST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT 
DEFINED BY  WARM (27-28C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND FAIR EQUATORWARD 
OUTFLOW OFFSET BY HIGH (30-40KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE 
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 94E WILL TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE 
NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 
25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 
151500).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
171500Z.
4. SEE REF B (WTPN22 PHNC 161000) FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE 
LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 96.0W.
//
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